Phil, never mind six more weeks of winter. Tell me, when do we get the first six weeks?

We’ve had ridiculously little snow so far this winter in Syracuse — little compared to what we usually get, which is a lot compared to most places. In fact, it’s time to stop comparing to usual and start comparing to the record low. As of today we’ve had 70.9 cm (27.9 inches) this winter. That is second (for years since 1933) only to 1937–38 when we had 67.1 cm (26.4 inches) by February 9. Previously in second place was 2011–12 with 80.8 cm (31.8 inches).

In case you can’t tell, I’ve gotten hold of Syracuse snowfall data and have been spreadsheeting it.

One thing I found which I was a little surprised by is that there’s basically no correlation between one month and the next. Here, for instance, is a scatterplot of snowfall from 10 Feb on (in inches, on vertical axis) versus snowfall up through 9 Feb (horizontal axis).

Scatterplot showing no large correlation between snow so far and snow to come

Snow from 10 Feb on vs. snow up through 9 Feb

Historically we tend to get around 97±38 cm (38±15 inches) after 9 Feb, and we’re about equally as likely to get that much after getting record low or average or record high amounts through 9 Feb.

But of course there is a correlation between snowfall through 9 Feb and total snowfall for the season:

Scatterplot showing clear correlation between snow so far and full season's snow

Snow for season vs. snow up through 9 Feb

So we’ll probably end up around 51 to 81 inches this season, putting us in the bottom 20 or so, but we’re not necessarily destined for the bottom 5 despite where we are now.

Yesterday it got up to 13°C (56°F). (Record high for the date was 16°C (60°F) in 1925.) I got on the bike. Didn’t need the mittens. Went 28.1 km (17.5 miles). Back on foot today, witnessing fungus and moss.

Shelf fungus and moss growing on a dead log

Fungus and moss

Last month’s progress was basically a dead heat with January 2023. Distance was down from the previous month but considering how often weather kept me in last month that’s no surprise. My virtual self has gotten to Silver Star, MT, which has been visited by the Street View car but evidently not in the past 15 years and only on the main street.

A map showing my progress is here , a spreadsheet with progress detail is here , and a Google Earth KMZ file is in  this Google Drive folder . Present coordinates: 45.686°N, 112.286°W .

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